United States interactive 2020 House Cook Political Report forecast Pelosi can thank these missed GOP opportunities for her razor-thin majority. In fact, had Democrats performed exactly five points better on the margin in all 435 districts, every race in our "lean" and "likely" columns would have been correct, Democrats would have won 11 of the 27 Toss Ups, and they would have gained seven seats overall. And what lessons can we draw for 2022? Rep The NRCC spent just $96,000 in coordinated expenditures in FL-27 and $95,000 in CA-39 — a tiny fraction of what it spent in scores of races that both parties' polls (and we) considered more competitive. It helped that these candidates didn't look like Trump or GOP leaders, and many (though not all) sounded quite different from Trump too. In 2022, our initial instinct is that a typical midterm backlash against a new party in the White House might be mitigated by a retreat of casual Trump voters without Trump on the ballot. RT @amyewalter: I know we don’t really do holiday parties these days, if you’re looking to drop some awesome political knowledge and trivia…, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 info@cookpolitical.com. But in the House, Republicans nearly swept the 27 races in our Toss Up column and won seven races in our "Lean" and "Likely" Democrat columns. For example, neither party spent a dime in South Texas, where Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-15) hung on by just three points. In 2018, Democrats ran up the score by recruiting political outsiders, especially women with national security backgrounds, to challenge GOP "insiders." It now sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election. An independent online political newsletter has changed its status on 20 races for the House of Representatives, saying Friday that they were all improving in the direction of Democrats. The Cook Political Report's 2020 House District Databook. Before then, pollsters and analysts will have time to conduct a proper autopsy, using comprehensive voter file data, of how the polls might have failed to anticipate the 2020 electorate. Of the 13 Republicans who flipped Democratic-held seats in 2020, all were women and/or minorities. Personally I expect these numbers to shift a bit in the Republicans favor even if 2020 is an otherwise good year for Dems. The Cook Political Report said four of the races were in Texas, three of which it changed from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" and another which it said was now a "toss up." The most credible theory might be one articulated by analyst David Shor: that for years, there's been a rising correlation between low levels of social and institutional trust, higher support for President Trump, and survey non-response. Why were the polls so consistently biased towards Democrats? Democrats’ odds in the race for control of the House are seeing yet another uptick, according to a new analysis from the Cook Political Report.. Very few non-incumbent Democrats ran ahead of Biden in their districts, but one was Cameron Webb (VA-05), who touted support from sheriffs in his ads and flipped the script by accusing his GOP opponent of voting to cut police funding. : Meanwhile, of the 29 House Republican freshmen from 2018, only one wasn't a man and only one wasn't white. [CDATA[// >